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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.